The chances of the United States and Iran reaching an agreement over the Strait of Hormuz are “50/50”, Dr. Anwar Gargash, Diplomatic Adviser to the UAE President, said on Friday, cautioning that a fresh round of fighting between Washington and Tehran would only compound an already unstable region.
Speaking in remarks carried by Sky News Arabia, Gargash said Iranian officials had “missed many opportunities over the years because of their tendency to overestimate their cards”, adding: “I hope they do not do that this time.”
The senior UAE official said any political solution must address the root causes of the crisis rather than simply achieve a ceasefire that leaves future conflict intact. “Negotiations aimed only at securing a ceasefire while planting the seeds of further conflict are not what we seek,” he said.
On the Strait of Hormuz, which Gargash described as having been “effectively closed” by Iran since the start of the conflict following Tehran’s announcement of a body to manage the waterway, he was direct: “I believe the Strait of Hormuz must return to its previous state as an international waterway.”
Gargash said the UAE had been targeted by around 3,300 drones and missiles during the first 40 days of the war that began on February 28, with roughly four per cent breaching air defence systems.
Iran’s nuclear programme, once a secondary concern for Abu Dhabi, now occupies a different position. “The Iranian nuclear programme used to be our second or third concern. Today it is our first concern,” Gargash said. “We have learned that Iran is willing to use any weapon available to it.”
