Dubai’s property market recorded a decline in transaction volumes during the first quarter of 2026, with activity falling 17 per cent quarter on quarter to 45,208 deals, according to the latest report from Savills Middle East.
The figures follow three quarters in 2025 during which volumes exceeded 50,000 transactions each. Activity in January and February remained in line with 2025 trends, but March saw a drop in momentum.
Savills attributed the slowdown to regional geopolitical developments, which led to a more cautious approach among market participants, as well as seasonal factors including Ramadan, the Eid holiday period and spring break at schools.
Dubai real estate transactions fall to 45,208 in Q1 2026, Savills report shows
The secondary, or ready, real estate market was most affected. Transactions in this segment fell by 40 per cent month on month in March compared with January and February. The segment’s share of total transactions dropped from 30–33 per cent in January and February to 23 per cent in March.
The off-plan segment accounted for 72 per cent of all transactions in Q1, driven by demand for projects and long-term investment confidence. Savills noted, however, that this momentum is likely to ease following a reduction in off-plan launches after the onset of the conflict.
The prime segment recorded 2,064 transactions above AED 10 million during the quarter. While activity moderated from January and February to March, demand remained present for well-located assets.
Prices continued to grow across Q1. Apartment prices rose from AED 1,942 per sq ft in 2025 to AED 2,010 per sq ft. Villa and townhouse prices increased from AED 1,501 per sq ft to AED 1,664 per sq ft. Savills said these increases could face pressure in Q2 as buyers seek more value and negotiations on pricing gather pace.
“What we are seeing is a natural shift towards a more measured and considered market environment following an extended period of strong activity. While some short-term moderation has emerged, particularly in March, this is being shaped by a combination of external factors and seasonal patterns rather than any structural change in demand. These trends need to be interpreted with caution, whilst not only being informed by evolving geopolitical developments, but also considering the broader quarterly period’s context.
Dubai’s residential market continues to be underpinned by strong fundamentals that have emerged through the years, including sustained investor interest, population growth and the city’s global appeal. High-quality developments and well-located assets are continuing to attract both end-users and investors, reinforcing confidence in the market’s long-term trajectory. What is clear is that in the short term the market has flipped from a sellers’ market to a buyers’ market where buyers look for value and sellers cash in on previous capital gains,” Andrew Cummings, Head of Residential Agency at Savills Middle East said in a statement.
Looking ahead, Savills said activity may continue to reflect a cautious approach as buyers and investors assess conditions. The firm described the adjustment as gradual, with no indication of market imbalance.
With a pipeline of supply expected over the coming years, market performance will increasingly be shaped by asset quality, location and pricing strategy, supporting a shift towards a more selective market environment, the report stated.
