Dubai’s property market returned to growth in October, with the Dubai Land Department recording 11,883 transactions, up 5 per cent from September and ending a two-month run of declining volumes, according to data from the DLD and Property Finder’s internal leads and search insights.
Sales value climbed 18 per cent to AED 34.8 billion, putting October almost level with July’s AED 34.9 billion despite roughly 2,255 fewer deals. The caveat is real, however: October deal counts remain well short of June and July, and significantly below the more than 17,000 transactions a month recorded in January and February.
“Some will look at October’s 24.7 per cent fall in mortgage value and see a weaker market. The more important number is that mortgages rose for a third month in a row. More people are buying, with smaller loans, so the market is getting broader. Applicants earning AED 20,000 to 59,999 a month made up 68.5 per cent of applications on our Mortgage Finder, up from 55.7 per cent in September, and the average apartment loan fell to AED 1.77 million from AED 2.67 million. These are people buying homes they can afford, and the adjustment in asking prices since February has put more homes within their reach. Investors have returned to 12.8 per cent of applications, concentrated in the same mid-income bands, and with renters making up 73 per cent of our Dubai leads and asking rents rising again, the rental case is coming back. Dubai’s recovery is being built from the middle. Volumes are still below the start of the year, so there is further to go, but a market with depth is a market that lasts,” Cherif Sleiman, Chief Revenue Officer at Property Finder said in a statement.
Residential drove most of the movement. Residential transactions rose 6 per cent to 11,294 and their combined value grew 18 per cent to AED 30.2 billion. Commercial activity was softer on volume, dipping 4 per cent to 589 deals, though commercial value rose 22 per cent to AED 4.5 billion.
The secondary market was the clearest bright spot. Resales climbed 13 per cent to 5,304, putting them 37 per cent above their May low, with secondary sales value rising to AED 18.1 billion from AED 15.8 billion. Off-plan volumes were essentially flat, with primary deals at 6,579 versus 6,593 in September, but primary sales value rose from AED 13.6 billion to AED 16.7 billion.
Mortgage data tells a nuanced story. The number of mortgages registered with the DLD rose 5.2 per cent to 3,811, a third consecutive monthly increase, while total mortgage value fell 24.7 per cent to AED 7.32 billion. The gap reflects smaller individual loans: the average apartment mortgage dropped to AED 1.77 million from AED 2.67 million in September. At the same time, 34.7 per cent of apartment sales involved a mortgage, up from 31.0 per cent in September and 26.7 per cent in August, and apartments now account for 85.8% of all mortgages registered.
Villa dynamics ran the other way. Villa sales reached 1,037, the highest in four months, but the mortgage take-up rate fell sharply to 52.1 per cent from 79.2 per cent in September. Those villa buyers who did borrow took larger loans, with the average villa mortgage rising to AED 2.87 million from AED 2.74 million.
Asking prices on Property Finder stabilised after adjusting since February, and asking rents rose for a second consecutive month following their lowest point of the year in August. Renters account for 73 per cent of Dubai leads on the platform, up from 58 per cent in February, while buyers’ share of leads rose to 27 per cent from 24 per cent in September.
