Dubai’s residential property market is approaching a floor. Both villa and apartment values fell just 0.1 per cent in September on a monthly basis, with around 80 per cent of freehold villa communities and 77 per cent of freehold apartment communities recording stable values during the month.
The overall Value Performance Index (VPI) stood at 218.6 points in September, down 4.5 per cent year-on-year. Since February, residential capital values have slipped 10.3 per cent in aggregate. Villas registered a VPI of 291.8 points, while apartments came in at 168.1 points, both indexed to 100 in Q1 2021.
The weighted average residential value across Dubai was AED 1,511 per square foot, with an average capital value of AED 3,354,108. Villa values averaged AED 2,033 per square foot and AED 12,956,856 per unit, while apartments averaged AED 1,392 per square foot and AED 1,780,976 per unit.
Despite the current softness, longer-run gains remain substantial. Older freehold villa communities are, on average, 186 per cent above post-pandemic levels and 75 per cent above the previous market peak recorded in 2014. Older freehold apartment communities are 68 per cent above post-pandemic levels, though still 9 per cent below that same 2014 peak.
Performance across individual communities varied considerably. Among villas, Jumeirah Islands posted the strongest annual gain at 9.4 per cent, followed by Emirates Hills (5.9 per cent), The Villa (3.7 per cent), Mira (2.6 per cent), and The Meadows (2.5 per cent). The steepest declines were in Mudon (-9.2 per cent), Palm Jumeirah (-8.5 per cent), Dubai Hills Estate (-8.3 per cent), Victory Heights (-8.1 per cent), and Arabian Ranches (-7.1 per cent).
For apartments, Dubai Sports City led annual gains at 3.1 per cent, ahead of Al Quoz Fourth (2.9 per cent), Dubai Silicon Oasis (2.7 per cent), and International City Phase 2 (2 per cent). The sharpest drops were recorded at Burj Khalifa (-21.7 per cent), Jumeirah Beach Residence (-18.3 per cent), Palm Jumeirah (-9.8 per cent), and Dubai Marina (-8.4 per cent).
Transaction volumes fell sharply. Ready-home sales declined 4.3 per cent month-on-month and were 23.5 per cent lower year-on-year, reaching 2,907 transactions. Off-plan registrations fell 14.1 per cent month-on-month and 51.3 per cent year-on-year, with 6,884 transactions, accounting for 70 per cent of all residential sales.
The ultra-prime segment remained active. Fifteen ready-property transactions exceeded AED 30 million in September, including 10 deals above AED 50 million, concentrated in Dubai Hills Estate, Palm Jumeirah, Emirates Hills, Bluewaters Island, and Jumeirah Golf Estates.
Among developers, Binghatti led off-plan sales with a 12.3 per cent share, followed by Emaar (10.5 per cent), Damac (8.8 per cent), Azizi (8.5 per cent), and Sobha (6 per cent). Top off-plan locations by volume included Majan (7.5 per cent), Azizi Venice (6.6 per cent), and Jumeirah Village Circle (6.3 per cent). Ready sales were most active in Jumeirah Village Circle (11.6 per cent), Business Bay (6.6 per cent), and Dubai Marina (3.9 per cent).
