Brent crude is holding just below $103 a barrel, with no clear resolution in sight for shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
That is the assessment of Josh Gilbert, Lead Analyst APAC and Middle East at eToro, who says markets remain unconvinced by diplomatic signals from Washington.
“President Trump has described recent conversations with Iran as positive, but oil prices show that investors are still waiting for a clear path to reopening the strait. Higher fuel costs are already being felt in the US, and the impact reaches households and businesses worldwide. That keeps inflation pressure high and creates a headwind for equities,” Gilbert said in a statement.
The closure has pushed the UAE’s Abu Dhabi-to-Fujairah pipeline into sharper focus. With Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline offline following drone attacks, the Fujairah route has become one of the few reliable channels for Gulf crude to reach buyers without passing through Hormuz.
Gilbert said ADNOC has also reportedly been a leading buyer of discounted Iraqi crude in recent months. “When dependable barrels are scarce, every shipment that reaches a buyer matters,” he said.
The window may not be long, however. The Fujairah pipeline is already running at close to its 1.8 million barrel-a-day capacity, and Saudi Arabia holds far more spare supply that it can move once its own pipeline comes back online.
Gilbert pointed to the UAE’s exit from OPEC in May as the more durable development. With a production capacity target of 5 million barrels a day by 2027 and no quota constraint, the UAE is positioned to move additional supply to market once the strait reopens.
On the market outlook, Gilbert flagged two variables worth watching: the pace of repairs to Saudi Arabia’s pipeline and developments in US–Iran diplomacy.
“Headlines can move oil prices quickly in either direction. For global investors, the broader picture remains cautious: oil above US$100 adds pressure on central banks at a time when several major economies are already raising rates. Until there is a lasting resolution in the Middle East, the conflict will continue to weigh on growth forecasts,” he said.
