Gold steadies as Iran talks and rate bets pull in opposite directions

Spot gold held near $4,191 as diplomatic progress on the US-Iran conflict offset growing expectations of a December Fed rate hike.

Staff Writer

Article summary

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Spot gold held near $4,191 on Tuesday as progress in US-Iran ceasefire talks competed with rising bets on a December Federal Reserve rate hike. Traders now assign an 89% probability to a December move, up sharply from 61% before last week's Fed meeting.

Key points

  • Spot gold steadied at $4,191.09 per ounce on Tuesday
  • Traders see 89% chance of Fed rate hike in December
  • US lifted Iran sanctions for 60 days after ceasefire talks

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Gold prices were broadly flat on Tuesday as investors weighed the progress of US-Iran ceasefire negotiations against rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December.

Spot gold held at $4,191.09 per ounce by 00:53 GMT. US gold futures for August delivery edged up 0.2% to $4,208.40.

On the diplomatic front, the United States lifted sanctions on Iran for 60 days starting Monday, following initial talks under an emerging framework to end the conflict. Officials said fighting in Lebanon had also eased under the agreement, which aims to halt hostilities across the region. US Vice President JD Vance said discussions with Iranian officials in Switzerland had laid solid groundwork for a final deal, though Iran denied that its nuclear programme had been on the table.

On the monetary policy side, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said he was focused on determining whether elevated inflation would persist or ease as the impact of higher tariffs fades and the regional conflict is resolved, with the labour market currently stable.

Traders now see an 89% probability of a December rate hike, up from 61% before last week’s Fed meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. Higher rates tend to weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver his first monetary policy testimony before Congress on 14 July, according to a hearing notice from the House Financial Services Committee.

Among other precious metals, silver fell 0.4% to $64.92 per ounce and platinum dropped 0.4% to $1,672.90, while palladium edged up 0.1% to $1,266.35.