Europe is confronting a structural energy supply challenge after shipments of jet fuel from the Middle East came to a complete halt this month.
The cessation of imports has been driven by conflict in the region and the closure of key shipping routes. It arrives at a moment of particular sensitivity: aviation demand across Europe is climbing as airlines and airports prepare for the summer peak season, traditionally the busiest period of the year.
European OECD nations consume approximately 1.6 million barrels of jet fuel and kerosene per day. Regional refineries, however, produce only around 1.1 million barrels over the same period – leaving a structural shortfall of 500,000 barrels per day that the continent has historically addressed through imports.
The Middle East has been central to filling that gap, the Emirates News Agency (WAM) reported. According to data from commodities analytics firm Kpler, the region supplied roughly 60 per cent of Europe’s external jet fuel imports in the preceding year. That level of dependence has now left European markets exposed to the full force of the disruption.
Market data indicates that European jet fuel imports from the Middle East will vanish entirely in April, a historic first since records began in 2017, while direct exports from the region to Europe have plummeted to all-time lows
Jet fuel prices have already responded to the supply squeeze. Prices have risen above $200 per barrel as inventories remain at constrained levels, adding to the financial strain on carriers already managing thin margins.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has previously cautioned that Europe could face outright shortages by June if it fails to source replacements for more than half of the volumes that had previously come from the Middle East.
