Fitch Ratings has affirmed the UAE’s long-term foreign currency sovereign credit rating at AA-, keeping the outlook stable, in an assessment that points to the country’s financial resilience amid ongoing geopolitical pressure in the region.
The agency attributed the high rating to the strength of the UAE’s net external asset position and a high GDP per capita, factors it said place the country among the top tier of rated sovereigns globally.
On the fiscal side, Fitch expects the UAE’s consolidated budget to remain in surplus at 4.5% of GDP in 2026, even as government spending rises by around 20% to absorb the direct effects of regional developments. The agency said that maintaining a surplus under these conditions reflects the durability and flexibility of the country’s public finances.
Abu Dhabi’s sovereign net foreign assets stand at approximately 164% of UAE GDP as of 2025, one of the highest ratios among all sovereigns Fitch rates. The agency described this as a substantial buffer against oil price volatility and external shocks.
Fitch also noted that Abu Dhabi’s export revenues for 2026 are expected to exceed pre-conflict forecasts, with an average oil price of $87 per barrel and pipeline exports through Fujairah expected to compensate for any decline in volumes through the Strait of Hormuz. The agency projects the strait will gradually reopen from July 2026.
On governance, the UAE received a score of +5 in Fitch’s environmental, social and governance assessment, covering political stability, rule of law, and anti-corruption indicators, based on World Bank global governance metrics.
The stable outlook was anchored by the expected resilience of oil export revenues and the scale of the country’s fiscal and external reserves. Fitch flagged, in line with its standard methodology, counterbalancing pressures including ongoing regional geopolitical challenges and the financial leverage of government-related entities.
