For 36 consecutive months, Dubai tenants largely stayed put. Moving was expensive, disruptive, and rarely worth it when renewal rents tracked market prices closely enough. That calculus has shifted.
An analysis by fäm Properties of Dubai Land Department tenancy registrations shows that new leases outnumbered renewals by 633 contracts in July and by 2,139 in August. According to fäm Properties, this is the first time either month has recorded more new leases than renewals since the dataset begins in January 2023.
The driver is straightforward. “The reason for this is very simply about price, with new-lease rents for the same building and unit type now 15.3 per cent lower than in January, while renewal rents are down about 1 per cent,” Firas Al Msaddi, founder and CEO of fäm Properties said in a statement.
“Previously, it was in the interests of tenants to stay where they were, especially as moving home can be challenging in various ways. But that has all changed because tenants can now move to a comparable apartment for less than a renewal would cost.”
The switching is concentrated in mid-market and prime districts. Data from DXBinteract shows that in August, new leases exceeded renewals by 1,102 contracts in Al Barsha South Fourth (Jumeirah Village Circle), 609 in Business Bay, 598 in Al Merkadh, 564 in Marsa Dubai (Dubai Marina) and 342 in Downtown Dubai.
In more affordable areas including Al Warsan First (International City), Jabal Ali First (Jebel Ali) and Nadd Hessa (Dubai Silicon Oasis), renewals still led.
Total leasing volumes have held up through the shift. New-lease contracts for January through August are 1 per cent below the same period in 2025, with July registering roughly 14,100 contracts and August roughly 15,600, both above last year’s levels. Renewals are also running 1 per cent below 2025.
Median rent on new apartment leases reached AED 94.6 per square foot in August, down 8.3 per cent from an October 2025 peak of AED 103.1.
Al Msaddi attributes the resilience of average rents to a compositional effect rather than underlying price strength. “The difference is that the leases still being signed are weighted towards better-quality and better-located stock, so the average of what is let holds up, while the price of any given apartment falls. Where landlords observed market conditions, leases were signed, while other tenants moved to capitalise on lower rents and other attractions. That is why the volume of registered contract held while rents fell.”
