Dubai’s off-plan market recorded a steep fall in new project launches between the first and second quarters of 2026, but the brokerage Betterhomes argues the contraction reflects a healthier market rather than a faltering one.
According to Harry Martin, Director of Off-Plan and Capital Markets at Betterhomes, new unit launches fell from around 45,000 in Q1 2026 to around 5,000 in Q2. Off-plan deals still accounted for over three-quarters of all transactions in Q2, even as overall off-plan volumes dropped roughly 12 percent and value fell around 15 percent quarter-on-quarter.
Martin attributes the pullback to a natural shakeout among developers. “You’ll see a maturing, things start to settle and find their feet as to where the true value is. The developers that are launching are the more established: full supply chain, full ecosystem, backing their product and their brand, a far more secure product coming to market,” Harry Martin, Director of Off-Plan & Capital Markets at betterhomes said in a statement.
On delivery, Betterhomes says it expects around 75,000 units to be completed across Dubai in 2026, with on-time completion rates rising from 50 percent in 2024 to 64 percent in 2025. The brokerage points to verified escrow accounts and structured sale-purchase agreements as regulatory factors supporting that improvement.
For buyers, Martin frames the quieter launch calendar as an opportunity rather than a constraint. “I don’t think the issue in this market is choice. Having a softening in the off-plan market, or the real estate market as a whole is a good thing for you as a buyer. You have slightly more buying power, more chance of negotiating, more chance of getting favourable terms from a developer, whether that’s payment-plan led or incentive led. A slowing in launches overall for the market will be a good thing. Don’t be put off as a buyer that it limits your choice, it just makes it a lot more selective than it was previously,” he added.
