Dubai Hills Estate recorded AED10.46 billion in residential sales value across 1,436 transactions in the first half of 2026, a report by Driven Properties shows.
The figure marks a 31.2 percent increase on the same period a year earlier, while transaction-weighted pricing across the district moved to AED2,848.27 per square foot, up 4.2 percent year-on-year.
The report, covering the period to 30 June 2026, states that transaction volume fell 31.7 percent over the same window, even as sales value climbed. The average ticket size reached AED7.28 million, a rise of 92.1 percent year-on-year.
The report by Driven Properties attributes the gap between falling volume and rising value to a change in the mix of property sold rather than a shift in demand. Villa transactions rose from 10.4 percent to 22.5 percent of the tape year-on-year, a move the report describes as “a composition shift, not a demand swing,” which it says “rotated the tape toward larger, higher-ticket stock” and lifted the average ticket while transaction-weighted pricing moved by 4.2 percent.
Off-plan sales accounted for 62.5 percent of transactions, clearing at AED2,808 per square foot. Ready stock cleared at AED2,941 per square foot, a premium of 4.7 percent over off-plan. The report notes this reverses “the usual launch premium,” pointing to the depth of handed-over inventory in the district.
Property type mix for the half stood at 77.2 percent apartments (1,108 transactions), 22.5 percent villas (323 transactions) and 0.3 percent villa plots (five transactions).
Emaar accounts for majority of transactions
Emaar Properties accounted for 77.4 percent of transactions in the half, recording 1,112 sales at AED2,748 per square foot.
The report presents an “ex-Emaar benchmark” of 324 transactions at AED2,938 per square foot as a separate reading of third-party activity, noting that the district’s top pricing tier is built by other developers, including H&H Investment and Development (156 transactions, AED2,941 per square foot), Ellington Properties (48 transactions, AED2,861 per square foot), City View Real Estate (24 transactions, AED2,877 per square foot) and Bright Start (20 transactions, AED3,273 per square foot).
Pricing across the district’s projects ranged from AED1,895 per square foot at Golf Residences by Fortimo, the report’s stated value floor, to AED3,273 per square foot at Eden House, the ceiling of its ultra-prime tier – a range the report calls “1.7x” between the tiers.
Etherea villas launch within the estate
Emaar launched Etherea Villas within Dubai Hills Estate in the second quarter of 2026, releasing 75 units described in the report as “limited-edition smart-home villas” positioned at the top of the estate’s pricing structure, with a stated price point of AED3,273 per square foot.
The report describes the release as “a managed, top-of-market launch rather than a volume phase,” citing home automation, biophilic design and low-energy specification as features of the collection.
The report links the launch to Emaar Hills, described as an adjacent AED100 billion community whose Dubai Mansions target buyers in the same segment, and states that new supply arriving at the top of the market “reprices the established core upward, not down.”
Rental market: New leases clear above renewals
The report’s rental data shows 2,879 lease contracts registered in the district in H1 2026, of which 1,692, or 58.8 percent, were new lets rather than renewals. New lets registered at AED162.39 per square foot, against AED128.84 per square foot on renewals, a gap the report states at 26.0 percent and describes as “the unspent mark-to-market on the district’s rental roll.”
Apartment occupancy stood at 87.9 percent in 2025. The average service charge for the year was AED20.79 per square foot on apartments and AED3.59 per square foot on villas.
Gross yield across the apartment core stood at 6.0 percent, against 4.8 percent on villas, with an all-stock figure of 5.1 percent, on ready apartment pricing of AED2,405 per square foot. The report states that the income return “sits with the mid-priced apartment core,” calling this “the standing inverse of price tier and yield.”
Individual project yields cited in the report include Prive Residence, Sway Residence and Golf Ville A, each at 6.90 percent gross on ready pricing near AED2,050 per square foot. Ellington House, at AED3,117 per square foot, returned 6.50 percent gross. Sidra Villas 2, at AED3,177 per square foot, returned 4.00 percent gross – the lowest figure in the table.
By bedroom count, gross yield fell from 6.80 percent on studios to 5.20 percent on three-bedroom units, before rising again to 6.00 percent on five-bedroom stock. The six-bedroom category recorded a reversion of 78.4 percent on 28 contracts, which the report describes as a scarcity reading on the top villa tier rather than a district-wide signal.
An indicative net yield of 4.4 percent was calculated for the apartment core after accounting for occupancy and service charge, against the 6.0 percent gross figure. No equivalent net figure was struck for villas, as villa occupancy is not separately disclosed in the underlying data.
Market trend: Prices rise every year since 2020
Transaction-weighted pricing has risen 162.1 percent since 2016, from AED1,087 to AED2,848 per square foot, climbing in every year since 2020 without a reversal, according to the report. Within 2026, the first quarter cleared at AED2,804.12 per square foot and the second quarter at AED2,936.00 per square foot.
Sales value peaked in 2024 at AED22.90 billion before falling to AED16.62 billion in 2025. Transaction volume peaked at 7,129 in 2024, falling to 4,283 in 2025.
The report states that the H1 2026 volume of 1,436 “annualises well below the 2024 peak” and represents “the mature-cycle pattern in which price leads and volume cools, not a contraction.”
The gap between off-plan and ready pricing has narrowed since 2023. Ready stock has priced above off-plan every year since a secondary market for ready stock began in 2023, with the gap at AED207 per square foot in 2023, rising to AED463 per square foot in 2025, before narrowing to AED133 per square foot in H1 2026.
Commercial market runs on leases
Dubai Hills Estate’s commercial market is centred on Dubai Hills Mall, a 2-million-square-foot development by Emaar and Meraas. The report records 121 commercial leases registered in H1 2026, led by 89 retail leases at a transaction-weighted AED303 per square foot per year, against 21 office leases at AED135 per square foot per year. Across a stabilised window from 2024 to H1 2026, retail leases benchmarked at AED275 per square foot per year across 542 leases, and office leases at AED151 per square foot across 128 leases.
Secondary commercial sales across the district totalled 32 between March 2022 and June 2026, all of them retail, with no office sale recorded in that period. Of nine commercial sales transactions in H1 2026, seven belonged to a single disposal of a retail block at Sway Residence at AED5,471 per square foot, and the remaining two were off-plan pre-registrations at 399 Hills Park A. The report concludes that Dubai Hills Estate’s commercial holdings are “leased, not sold,” describing this as an income structure for developers rather than a market for individual buyers.
Two positioning strategies set out in the report
The report sets out two positioning options for buyers in the district. The first centres on established villa and townhouse communities – Golf Place, Sidra Villas 1 and 2, and Maple Townhouses 1–3 – with tickets ranging from AED5 million for a townhouse to AED22 million for a golf villa.
Golf Place recorded an average sale of AED21.92 million at AED3,141 per square foot; Sidra villa lines ran from AED10 million to AED12 million at AED2,906 to AED3,177 per square foot; and Maple townhouse rows ran from AED5.2 million to AED5.4 million at AED2,127 to AED2,265 per square foot.
The second option centres on the value and mid-premium apartment segment for yield and speed of deployment, covering Prive, Sway, Golf Ville A, Parkwood, Greencrest and Palace Residences Hillside A, with tickets from AED1.3 million to AED2.8 million.
Palace Residences Hillside A recorded 178 transactions at AED2,530 per square foot in the half, Greencrest 137 transactions at AED2,323 per square foot, and Parkwood 33 transactions at AED2,621 per square foot.
Dubai Hills Estate spans 11 million square metres, or 2,700 acres, at the junction of Al Khail Road and Umm Suqeim Road. The community was developed under a joint venture between Emaar and Meraas, launched in 2013 as the first phase of Mohammed Bin Rashid City, with first villa handovers in 2016.
It is built around an 18-hole golf course and 1.45 million square metres of parkland, alongside Dubai Hills Mall, King’s College Hospital and a group of international schools. At full build-out, the district is set to hold more than 4,400 villas and townhouses and over 22,000 apartments. It sits 15 minutes from Downtown Dubai and Dubai Marina.
The report was prepared by Driven, which represents Forbes Global Properties in Dubai, using data from Reidin transaction, rental, occupancy and service-charge records extracted between June and July 2026.
The report states it does not constitute investment, tax or legal advice, and that Driven holds no principal position in any asset covered.
