Dubai added 24,800 new residential units in the first half of 2026, a 38 per cent increase on the same period last year and 12 per cent more than in the second half of 2025, according to a new report from Cavendish Maxwell.
The advisory firm describes the delivery pace as the strongest half-yearly completion period in several years, and argues it signals a structural shift: the market is moving from a launch-led cycle to one defined by delivery.
That shift is visible in the launch numbers, which ran sharply in the opposite direction. Developers brought 28,000 new units across 124 launches to market in H1, compared with 102,000 units across 410 launches in the same period last year.
The pullback began in Q1, before regional tensions emerged, suggesting developers were already recalibrating after record-setting volumes in 2024 and 2025. The trend deepened in Q2 as some developers chose to defer new projects amid heightened regional uncertainty.
Transaction volumes followed a similar trajectory. Dubai recorded 79,300 residential sales in H1, down nearly 14 per cent year-on-year and 27 per cent below the record levels of H2 2025. Off-plan and ready market sales fell by around 9 per cent and 26 per cent respectively. Off-plan transactions still accounted for roughly 75 per cent of the total. Total sales values reached AED221.4 billion, down nearly 16 per cent year-on-year and 20 per cent lower than H2 2025.
“Dubai’s residential market is showing clear signs of transitioning to a new cycle following exceptional levels of activity over the last two years. The fundamentals that drive real estate demand in the emirate remain intact, but the near-term outlook is being shaped by a combination of factors – including the impact of fewer launches, regional uncertainty and a broader normalisation in buyer activity – that are likely to influence transaction levels and price performance,” Ronan Arthur, Director, Head of Residential Valuations at Cavendish Maxwell said in a statement.
On prices, the average residential sales price stood at AED1,639 per square foot in June 2026, down 2.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter but up just under 2 per cent annually.
Annual price growth has eased sharply, from above 12 per cent in December 2025 to 1.9 per cent by June. Rental growth showed a similar trajectory: rents declined 2.5 per cent in Q2 compared to Q1 but were up 7.8 per cent year-on-year, the lowest annual growth rate in recent years after a sustained run of increases consistently above 11 per cent from 2023 until early 2026.
Rental yields held up well. Apartments averaged nearly 7 per cent gross and villas around 5 per cent, with Dubai Investments Park delivering the highest apartment yields at 9.7 per cent.
Ultra luxury sales, defined as properties above AED50 million, bucked the broader trend with a 13 per cent year-on-year rise to 160 transactions. Mortgage activity also grew, with 22,500 transactions recorded in H1, up 7.2 per cent on the same period last year.
Cavendish Maxwell projects 47,000 new units for delivery in H2 2026, though it expects actual completions to land between 14,000 and 23,500 based on historical materialisation rates. The pipeline beyond that is substantial: 162,500 units are scheduled for 2027 and 128,200 for 2028.
