Goldman Sachs has said Brent crude could exceed $120 per barrel in the fourth quarter of this year and average $100 per barrel in 2026 if disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz persist and Gulf producers do not fully restore output until the end of 2027.
The warning came as analysts noted that estimated Gulf flows have already dropped below 45% of pre-war levels, a deterioration the bank said poses upside risks to its existing price forecasts of $80 per barrel for Q4 and $75 for 2027. Those baseline figures assumed a de-escalation in the final quarter of this year.
