Bill Gates has challenged the climate community to redirect its focus from temperature targets to human welfare, arguing that the approach to climate change needs a rethink ahead of next month’s COP30 summit in Brazil.
The Microsoft co-founder, who has invested billions in clean energy innovation over two decades, said the world has made progress that contradicts predictions of catastrophe.
He pointed to data from the International Energy Agency showing that projected emissions for 2040 have fallen from 50 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide to 30 billion tonnes in just ten years.
Bill Gates calls for climate strategy shift from temperature targets to human welfare ahead of COP30
“In the past 10 years, we’ve cut projected emissions by more than 40 percent,” Gates wrote in a memo released ahead of the Brazil summit.
He said innovation has driven costs to zero or below zero for solar, wind, power storage and electric vehicles, making them as cheap as or cheaper than fossil fuel alternatives.
Gates acknowledged that even with moderate action, scientific consensus suggests Earth’s temperature will rise between 2°C and 3°C above 1850 levels by 2100, exceeding the 1.5°C Paris Agreement target. However, he rejected what he termed the “doomsday view” that climate change will decimate civilisation.
“Climate change will have serious consequences—particularly for people in the poorest countries—it will not lead to humanity’s demise,” he stated.
Gates argued that for people in low-income countries, poverty and disease pose greater threats than climate change. He said understanding this would allow limited resources to focus on interventions with the greatest impact for vulnerable populations.
“The biggest problems are poverty and disease, just as they always have been,” he wrote.
He pointed to research from the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab showing that accounting for expected economic growth in low-income countries reduces projected climate deaths by more than 50 percent.
Gates identified agriculture improvements as the best investment for climate adaptation. He noted that smallholder farmers in poor countries produce about 80 percent less per acre than American farmers and earn around $2 per day from two to four acres.
He highlighted that farmers in India received SMS warnings about early monsoon rains that saved millions of acres of crops. In Kenya, climate-resilient maize varieties developed with Gates Foundation support gave farmers 66 percent more yield, providing enough food for a family of six for a year plus $880 worth of crops to sell.
“That’s equivalent to five months of income for them,” Gates wrote.
On health, he noted that poverty-related diseases kill about 8 million people annually, whilst temperature-related deaths cause around 500,000 deaths per year. He said excessive cold kills nearly ten times more people than heat.
“While we need to limit the number of extremely hot and cold days, we also need to make sure that fewer people live in poverty and poor health so that extreme weather isn’t such a threat to them,” he stated.
Gates outlined progress in the five sectors responsible for all carbon emissions through his Breakthrough Energy platform, which has supported more than 150 companies since 2015.
He said next-generation nuclear fission plants are under construction in Wyoming, whilst fusion technology has moved from science fiction to near-commercial viability. New wind power approaches can generate more energy using less land, and advances in geothermal mean it is being tapped in more locations.
Zero-emissions steel exists today and is made using electricity, Gates said. Several companies have developed clean cement with no cost premium, though it takes years to gain market share and increase manufacturing capacity.
He highlighted the discovery of geologic hydrogen as one of the biggest energy surprises of the past decade. Companies have proven they can find it underground, with the challenge now being efficient extraction.
Gates said farmers can already purchase fertiliser replacements made without emissions that sell at a cost advantage. Additives to cattle feed that prevent methane production are nearly economical for farmers, and a vaccine that achieves the same result has been shown to work.
Nearly one in four cars sold in 2024 was electric, with more than 10 percent of all vehicles worldwide now electric. However, airplane emissions are projected to double by 2050, and clean jet fuel carries a cost premium of over 100 percent.
Electric heat pumps are now available, up to five times more efficient than boilers and furnaces, and often cheaper. However, there are not enough skilled workers worldwide to install them.
Gates noted that money available to help the poorest countries is shrinking as wealthy nations cut aid budgets and low-income countries face debt burdens. He said aid was already less than 1 percent of rich countries’ budgets at its highest level.
He revealed that Gavi, the vaccine-buying fund, will have 25 percent less money for the next five years compared to the past five years.
“We have to think rigorously and numerically about how to put the time and money we do have to the best use,” he wrote.
Gates outlined two priorities for the climate community
First, he called for driving the “Green Premium”—the cost difference between clean and dirty technologies—to zero. He proposed that every COP summit should include discussions based on the five economic sectors, with representatives reporting progress towards zero-carbon innovations.
“The countries that win the race to develop these breakthroughs will create jobs, hold enormous economic power for decades to come, and become more energy independent,” he stated.
Second, he urged rigorous measurement of impact. He cited Gavi’s record of preventing 19 million deaths since 2000 with $22 billion in spending, saving a life for little more than $1,000.
“Every effort in the world’s climate agenda should undergo a similar analysis and be prioritised by its ability to save and improve lives cost-effectively,” Gates wrote.
Gates praised Brazil’s leadership of COP30 for putting climate adaptation and human development high on the agenda. He said the summit represents a chance to refocus on improving lives rather than solely targeting emissions and temperature change.
“Development doesn’t depend on helping people adapt to a warmer climate—development is adaptation,” he stated.
The Gates Foundation, Brazilian government and other partners will host a showcase of agricultural innovations at the summit.
Gates said his views on climate are informed by his work through Breakthrough Energy, which he co-founded in 2015 after the Paris Agreement, and his 25 years at the Gates Foundation, where health and development in poor countries is the top priority.
He addressed potential criticism by acknowledging his carbon footprint, which he said he offsets with carbon credits, and stated his sole purpose is ensuring the most vulnerable people receive the greatest impact from limited resources.
“Climate change is a very important problem. It needs to be solved, along with other problems like malaria and malnutrition,” he wrote.
